Are Trump’s Threats Good for Foreign Leaders?
Tracking the Effect of Donald Trump's Threats on Foreign Leaders
Pollitik examines how Trump’s threats to foreign leaders have affected their approval ratings. Tracking these shifts in approval allows us to better understand how the world reacts to and views American power, as friend or foe.
Denmark/Greenland
While running for president and during his first few months in office, Donald Trump has economically and militarily threatened the sovereignty of neighbors, allies, and other nation-states. Greenland has had a colonial relationship with Denmark since the early 18th century. This recent round of rhetoric is not the first time President Trump has discussed taking over Greenland. Yet during the current discussion around the idea, the President has opened to the Idea of military force to achieve this goal. His actions have led to a flurry of defensive action from European states once believed to be allergic to such action.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s approval ratings from 2020 to 2025 reflect a politically intense period marked by a health crisis and global tensions. Her popularity soared in early 2020, jumping from below 50% to nearly 80%, largely due to her decisive and well-communicated COVID-19 response. However, her ratings gradually declined to the mid-40s by 2023, likely due to public fatigue, economic strain, and political stagnation. Ratings remained low through most of 2024. In early 2025, her approval rebounded sharply after she strongly rejected former U.S. President Trump’s provocative comment about "invading Greenland." Many Danes saw her firm stance as a symbol of national strength, boosting public support and highlighting how international challenges can reinforce leadership credibility.
Mexico
Mexico was threatened to be hit by tariffs from Donald Trump when he was running, and Mexico responded to the threats by announcing a plan to counter these tariffs. Focusing more on the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, she is the first female president of Mexico, winning the election with 61% in 2024 and is part of the MORENA party, the left-wing political party, which was in power already with the help of the last president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Trump has threatened to put a 25% tariff on all things Mexican after his inauguration and of course Sheinbaum reacted by going against the tariffs.
In the month following Trump's announcement that, “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States", Sheinbaum’s approval rating jumped up 9 points, going from 69% to 78%, with it then increasing three points reaching 81% in January. This increase in approval comes from the threats made by Trump against Mexico and Sheinbaum’s reaction towards these threats, trying to counter these tariffs has helped her popularity with the rally around the flag effect, triggering after all this.
Ukraine
It has been three years since Russia officially invaded Ukraine, and eleven years since the little green men entered Crimea. This war brought together a nation that many in the West viewed as a candidate for Balkanization. Ukrainians have accepted that EU and NATO membership must be in their future. This issue of EU accession led to the revolution of dignity, which collapsed the regime of Putin’s ally, Viktor Yanukovych. These events would play into the Russian occupation of Crimea, the beginning stage of what would become the war we know today.
President Zelensky's anti-corruption rhetoric earned him quite a long honeymoon, scoring him early wins in his tenure. Yet the natural approval decay of the honeymoon set in, and would only be reversed by Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, leading to a large rally around Zelensky. Yet as the war has drawn on, his approval has slowly declined. Still, after the last quarter of 2024, corresponding with the US election, Zelensky has seen an increase in popularity with the reelection of President Trump.
The freezing and resuming of military aid from the US has resulted in a sense of crisis in the nation, which has coincided with similar crises throughout Europe. This has resulted in a rally within Ukraine around Zelensky as the halting of American aid increases Russia's threat. Internationally, Europe has rallied around Ukraine, preparing to increase defense budgets, believing they may not be able to trust their American partners.
Conclusion
President Trump's threats against other sovereign nations have given foreign leaders the public support at home to stand up to him. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy both received boosts in their public support after long periods of declining popularity. And even in Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum was already enjoying a robust honeymoon, the public appears to have rallied to her side amidst her tariff war with Donald Trump.